Despite a Czech court's ruling that the Lisbon treaty does not conflict with the country's constitution, a quick ratification should not be expected.
When a member state's turn comes round to hold the presidency of the EU, the timing is almost invariably unfortunate, as the Czech Republic is discovering. Even as the days tick away before we take over, the political turmoil resembles a death dance for Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek and his government.
Despite the constitutional court's decision last week (26 November) that the Lisbon treaty did not conflict with the Czech constitution, Václav Klaus, the president, is not happy. He says he may not sign the treaty and is helping a bid to remove Topolánek as leader of the Civic Democrats (ODS).
This weekend the conflict will come to a head with a formal challenge to Topolánek from the mayor of Prague, Pavel Bém, at the ODS's party convention. Bém's plan, if he wins is to push for the dissolution of the current government coalition with the Christian Democrats and Greens and try to form a government of experts to lead the country to early elections (they would otherwise be in 2010).
One reason for Klaus's enthusiastic backing for the mayor is the Lisbon treaty. Bém proposes to commit all ODS MPs to vote against the treaty in the Czech parliament. The Czech media speculates that the ODS would then split, producing a new all-Eurosceptic party.
The main threat to the pro-European Topolánek comes from his own political party. He is now getting support from most of the regional assemblies, however, and might just survive the convention and stay prime minister, at least until the end of the Czech EU presidency in July.
Currently, he at least has the consolation that the constitutional court unanimously ruled, after seven months of deliberation, that six points in the EU's reform treaty challenged by the senate are not in conflict with the country's constitution.
But even that is not entirely simple. The court made clear that some articles in the Lisbon treaty allowed for different interpretation and the court might rule some decisions by EU institutions to be in conflict with the Czech constitution.
Can we now expect a quick ratification process in Prague? Hardly; even though the Social Democrats, Greens and Christian Democrats are calling for it before the end of the year, trying to push the treaty through parliament could merely escalate the crises in the ODS. There is even a possibility that the government might try to link voting through the Lisbon treaty with voting on the US missile shield, and (why not?) with proposals for the Czech Republic to adopt the euro.
At first sight, this could be a very smart move, generating significant cross-party support in parliament (the Communists would be the main nay-sayers). But it could be perceived very critically by the public, which appears to have turned decisively against the Lisbon treaty.
The polls suggested a slight majority for ratification in February, there by October 55% were against.
If a reasonable consensus could somehow be achieved among politicians, based on the decision of the constitutional court, this could be a good investment in long-term popular trust of the EU. (Some MPs are now threatening another appeal to the constitutional court.)
But it would be no tragedy if the treaty were not ratified by Christmas. The Czechs lived for a long time under Nazi and then Soviet rule. They are sensitive to issues of national independence and perhaps that has to be respected.
In other areas, including administrative, the Czechs have been preparing for the presidency rather well. But prepare for some sarcastic Czech humour, like the slogan for the Czech presidency: "Europe without barriers? Europe without Czechs."
Tomáš Jelínek was economic adviser to former President Václav Havel in 1996-2001.